Last week the Russian export market of milling wheat was dominated by bearish price trends. In the Novorossiysk port, export prices for Russian milling wheat with 12.5 % and 11.5 % protein closed the week down on average $2/MT FOB for November-December delivery.
The market is mostly pressured by a slowdown in trading in view of gradually weakening foreign demand and rising competition from American and Argentine wheat, reports UkrAgroConsult.
According to some estimates, during the first four months of the current season, Russian exporters already realized over 50 % of this season’s export potential, whereas 32 % of export availabilities were shipped abroad at the same time last year.
Roughly 35 % more wheat was exported in July-October 2018/19 than a year ago.
Such a record pace of export shipments will entail a slump in Russian wheat supply and exports in the latter half of the season. Market participants already report a decrease in domestic grain supply, and farmers have begun to hold back grain remainders.
Noteworthy, this week Russia’s Ag Ministry increased its forecast of 2018/19 wheat exports by 1 MMT to 34–35 MMT. As a reminder, Russia exported 40.4 MMT of wheat in the 2017/18 season (excluding the Customs Union countries).